Doc’s note: More than ever, we’re seeing folks who have never invested before getting into the market. And they’re getting advice on fad investments from celebrities and places like Reddit. It’s a risky time in the market.
In today’s issue, Extreme Value editor Dan Ferris explains where he’s seeing signs of danger and how to protect yourself with one mantra…
The dot-com bubble peaked on Friday, March 10, 2000.
Most of the New York Times headlines in the days leading up to the market’s top were about the presidential primary elections. In those first several issues of March 2000, headlines about stocks or investing didn’t appear until I was several pages in (sometimes 40 or 50!).
But on the day the market peaked, right in the middle of the first page and just below the fold, the Times ran a story titled, “Teaching Johnny Values Where Money Is King.” The first sentence read…
Every day after school, 13-year-old Jeffrey Mendelman has a peanut butter and jelly sandwich with milk, finishes his homework – and checks his stocks.
A 13-year-old boy obsessively checking stock prices is as sure of a sign of the top as you can get.
The 2021 version of the “Teaching Johnny” story is, of course, much weirder…
Carole Baskin runs Big Cat Rescue, a tiger sanctuary in Florida. And as many of you probably know, she also stars in the Netflix true crime documentary, Tiger King… It’s about her long-running feud with Joe Exotic, who operated a wild animal park in Oklahoma.
As gonzo journalist Hunter S. Thompson said in his 1971 book, Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas, “When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.”
So naturally, Baskin recently became a professional stock tout.
It appears Baskin was paid about $300 to make a video mentioning a penny stock called Zomedica (ZOM). Baskin notes that she doesn’t hold any of the shares of the pet-medicine maker. But in the video, she said she can feel it in her “cat bones” that it’s a good one…
And thanks to her mention, the stock soared more than 230% in just three trading sessions… jumping from $0.40 per share to $1.35 per share. But the Baskin bump didn’t last… Today, the stock is trading around $0.48.
Another weird celebrity stock promotion implies the bubble is in its death throes…
In a two-word Twitter post around 8 a.m. Eastern time on January 7, Tesla founder Elon Musk simply said, “Use Signal.” He was referring to the cross-platform messaging app.
But a bunch of investors didn’t care to confirm that detail before hitting the buy button…
Texas-based Signal Advance (SIGL) surged 5,000%-plus in three trading sessions after Musk’s message. Unfortunately, that company has nothing to do with the Signal app.
The company has no revenue and hasn’t filed a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission report since 2019. Its stock went up 5,000% solely because it had “Signal” in its name.
During the headiest days of the dot-com era, companies with “.com” in their names soared… despite many having no revenues or viable business models. The same thing has happened during gold manias with companies that have “Gold” or “Gold Mining” in their names… despite many not possessing as much as a single ounce of the precious metal.
When the market gets to the “We’ll buy anything with the latest investor fad in its name” phase of the bubble, surely the end must be near.
To put it bluntly… I have never seen a moment this extremely bullish during my 22-year career… in my 59 years of life… or even since Adam and Eve were kicked out of paradise.
Not in 1929… not in 2000… not in 2007. Never.
Even though regular readers know that I abhor predictions, I’ll go one step closer to making an outright one today… I will be shocked if the benchmark S&P 500 Index doesn’t spend at least some time trading 15% to 20% below its all-time high this year.
And one more step closer… I’ve bet a small amount of real money that it will happen.
Of course, I could be making a mistake by placing such a bet. It’s challenging to try to trade around the top of a major asset bubble, in either direction. The action tends to be too crazy and choppy.
So what should you do about all this today?
It’s critical to remember my investment mantra: Prepare, don’t predict…
I still believe “true diversification” – which prepares you for a wide range of long-term outcomes – is the most prudent path right now.
As I’ve said before, the basic components of a truly diversified portfolio include a foundation of stocks and bonds, plenty of cash, gold, silver, and at least a little bit of bitcoin.
I also recommend that you explore stores of value in which you have a deep personal interest… They can be anything from real estate to gold coins to collectible musical instruments to wine or art. It’s basically anything in which you have real knowledge and a personal connection, giving you greater insight into the asset’s potential to preserve wealth.
You can’t let yourself get caught off guard. You must be ready for a wide range of potential outcomes. In the end, I guarantee you’ll be glad that you prepared.
Editor’s note: Dan is stepping forward to show you the secret behind his biggest winners. It’s not “flashy” or “sexy,” but it’s simple to use and only requires you to check off five “boxes” on every investment before you take a stake. Dan also details how it’s led him to his latest recommendation, the smallest stock he’s picked in seven years… and that could soar 200% or more. Click here for full details.